Monetary Policy

Investors have been chasing their favorite AI names around the track, without considering how they could sustain their earnings growth for a prolonged period or through a recession. As long-term investors, we aim to remain focused on resilient companies with durable business models, which we believe will finish the race.

As the landscape shifts, investors may now be exposed to risks that were previously disguised by a prolonged era of accommodative monetary policy. Today, it pays to be wary. A focus on quality can protect in a downturn and provide a smoother ride through the cycle.

Inflation may be like gum on your shoe – annoying and, above all, hard to remove. Sticky inflation is a scenario that has been in the cards for quite a while already but now seems to receive more weight as a probable outcome. There are six reasons for this display of stubbornness which may disappoint those who thought inflation would come off easily.

The euphoria in the financial markets has been driven by falling expectations of a severe recession. Although our models continue to indicate a US recession, this is likely to begin later in the year. This means there is no contradiction in the equity overweighting that is currently suggested by our model.