Macroeconomics

Following years of underperformance, emerging market equities are leading global markets in 2025 to date, driven by a softer US dollar, policy reforms, and renewed investor confidence. With valuations still discounted and structural tailwinds in place, this rally signals a potential long-term shift in global equity dynamics.

France is in the news again. Prime Minister Lecornu became the latest casualty of the French politics saga that began just over a year ago when president Macron called a surprise early election.

With the Fed’s stance suggesting it is prioritising growth over sticky inflation risks, volatility in longer dated bonds is likely to persist and the case for increasing duration in fixed income is not compelling.

In our latest Quality Conversations videos, discover how quality companies—those with strong franchises, pricing power, and unlevered balance sheets—can thrive in uncertain markets. By navigating inflation, shifting economic cycles, and interest rate volatility, these "masters of their own destiny" appear to offer resilience and long-term growth potential.

While tariffs have done meaningful damage to the economic outlook and raised volatility in rates markets, the softening of the US stance has restored confidence in credit returns for 2025.

The question for investors now is how much of the macro risk remains, and how well that risk is being reflected in asset valuations.

Last week was one of the most volatile on record. President Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs for every country bar China sparked one of the largest rallies in equity indices in recent history.

With the recent economic spotlight dominated by President Trump’s rhetoric and Germany’s blockbuster fiscal expansion plans, Wednesday brought the UK back into focus with the latest round of inflation data and the Spring Statement from the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves.

Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell had the honour of kicking off the 2025 season for the major central banks this week, swiftly followed by the chore of having to plead the fifth every time he was asked about a President Trump policy.

Much of the discussion around inflation over the past few months has centred on the potential for US tariffs, a focus that has only intensified following Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Global rates markets rallied sharply on Wednesday after fixed income investors received some long-awaited good news in the shape of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which came in below consensus in both the US and the UK.

Last week Fitch Ratings published a report concerning asset performance deterioration in UK residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) originated prior to the global financial crisis (GFC).