Sharing our convictions

Is China’s property market on the mend? Are there any more humps in the road before it turns the corner? Our emerging markets credit specialists Cosmo Zhang and Wouter van Overfelt explain how contrarian investors who may have missed the strong rebound in December can now spot potential opportunities for generating alpha.

Low interest rates, declining tax rates, and constrained wages contributed to margin expansion for large US companies over the past decade. Companies whose growth is driven by these temporary factors may be more vulnerable in tough conditions, while quality companies with structural growth drivers designed to succeed in all conditions may prevail.

Wouter Van Overfelt, Head of Emerging Market Corporates and Luc D’hooge, Head of Emerging Markets Bonds, provide a review on the developments in the first quarter, the current positioning of the strategies as well as an outlook for the remainder of 2023.

This month we asked ChatGPT for its investment outlook. Aside from fancy language we didn’t get much out of it. Conversely, our models reveal a continued equity overweight and a slightly more constructive view on bonds as investors hope for Fed pivot.

As earnings season kicks off in Europe, Eoin Walsh looks at what impact, if any, recent volatility in the banking sector has had on European banks. 

After the “great repricing” of 2022, is corporate credit now ready for takeoff? Our corporate credit experts, Mondher Bettaieb Loriot and Christian Hantel, analyze the reasons behind the revival of high-grade corporate credit and explain why they remain optimistic about investment-grade markets in Europe and the US.

Following a busy quarter in bond markets, Portfolio Manager Charlene Malik reflects on macro events and discusses how our Multi-Sector Bond team have responded.

Partner and Portfolio Manager Chris Bowie discusses recent Q1 events and gives an outlook for Investment Grade for the next quarter.

With headlines suggesting that deposit outflows in the banking sector are causing concern, Felipe Villarroel looks at the data which suggests that European banks remain resilient.

For a single company, supply chain oversight can be complex. For professional investors with multiple companies in their investment portfolios, this task can become massive. Complexity, however, is not something to hide behind.

The tightening cycle has started to bite by taking down three US lenders and sending jitters through the banking sector as a whole. While swift Fed action convinced our models to quickly reject 2007/08 comparisons, a true Fed pivot might be needed to support market sentiment further down the line.

2022 was the worst year for bonds in living memory. So, could 2023 be similarly bad for other asset classes? Chris Bowie looks at the case for short dated investment grade credit for 2023.

After a volatile few days in bank capital, Felipe Villarroel looks at how AT1s are pricing after the sell off.

Given the recent headlines surrounding Credit Suisse and the decision from FINMA, the Swiss regulator, to write down CHF16 billion of Credit Suisse’s Additional Tier 1 debt to zero, we hosted a webinar looking at the possible wider implications of this write-down and what it could mean for fixed income investors.

Swiss regulators' decision to bail out Credit Suisse equity holders while wiping out AT1 debtholders will see long-term effects on bank debt markets and likely legal action says Eoin Walsh

Partner Eoin Walsh explores what the potential outcome of regulatory intervention for Credit Suisse could mean as negative headlines persist for the bank.

With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank dominating media headlines and fueling questions among investors, Mario Montagnani explains why our Multi Asset Boutique believes it is a company-specific, isolated case.

Deposit outflows at Silicon Valley Bank raise concerns over lending quality and mark-to-market losses, but is this a wider issue for the global banking sector?

Inflation may be like gum on your shoe – annoying and, above all, hard to remove. Sticky inflation is a scenario that has been in the cards for quite a while already but now seems to receive more weight as a probable outcome. There are six reasons for this display of stubbornness which may disappoint those who thought inflation would come off easily.

European ABS proved to be a valuable allocation for fixed income investors last year and we think the asset class looks to be even stronger in 2023, with rates and spreads combining to create an attractive income landscape.

The strong US labor market report has shifted recession risks towards the end of the year. This may have opened the door for a grace period, in which uncertainty around the economic impact of recent policy tightening makes it impossible to refute the arguments of either camp: bulls and bears. This article shows how our models are dealing with this kind of uncertainty.

With 2023’s rally halted by the Fed’s hawkish messaging, Felipe Villarroel questions whether markets read the recent jobs data correctly and looks at what it means for terminal rate expectations.

ESG research is an extension of our philosophy of long-term thinking and fits seamlessly into our existing research process. We focus on material issues rather than broad ESG scores, which enables us to understand and get ahead of risks that can jeopardize earnings predictability.

When comparing the earnings trajectory of emerging markets corporates with that of their developed-market counterparts, many investors consider this a lost decade. Are emerging market stocks now set to bounce back?