Asset Allocation

Earlier this month, we wrote about the high cost of staying in cash in the Euro market. In that note, we argued that a combination of inflation, low front-end rates and steeper curves, favoured a rotation out of cash and cash like instruments into other alternatives that delivered better real returns, including credit. Building on this argument, we wanted to extend this perspective to the US dollar market and highlight a few key points.

In November 2023, we estimated that holding cash, as opposed to staying invested, could cost investors 10-30% over a three-year period. At the time, we highlighted that interest rates had reached their cyclical peaks and were likely to decrease from that point.

Since the Federal Reserve first cut interest rates in September, we have seen the most aggressive rise in US Treasury yields of any cutting cycle over the past 40 years.

Will volatility in government bonds continue? Has fixed income seen “peak ESG”? And what will be the biggest driver of returns?

Given modest interest rate cut projections, a stable if not stellar macro backdrop and better relative value than corporate credit, we think European ABS investors can expect another strong year of supply and returns in 2025.

Spread tightening has left some market participants nervous about fixed income valuations going into 2025, but we think the drivers of recent credit performance are unlikely to weaken materially in the coming months.

What lies ahead for investors with a Trump-led government? From tax policies to trade, the Multi Asset Boutique dives into market reactions and potential economic impacts.

TwentyFour Asset Management’s Chris Bowie, takes a closer look at how he is thinking about duration within fixed income portfolios and shows how following conventional wisdom on duration might prove costly for some investors this year.

The beginning of a new year is often when we look to change the way we behave, but how we invest can also influence our behavior. From inspiring confidence to encouraging discipline, our Chief Economist, Dr Reto Cueni examines how investing in quality can have positive effects on investor behavior.

Many US investors are overweight domestic versus international strategies for the wrong reasons – home bias and benchmark anchoring. In our view, investors should focus on great companies, regardless of where they are domiciled. An active international strategy can help US investors expand their opportunity set, diversify risks, and improve their portfolio returns.

2023 proved to be a second year where European ABS gave investors the strongest returns in fixed income with the benefit of very low volatility. As risk-free rates grew to what we expect to be the peak, income was maximised whilst the various market pivots on rates came and went in the rear view mirror.

While bonds are once again finding their feet, investors have found themselves sitting on cash balances of 30% to 50%. This capital preservation trade has made perfect sense, but does it still make sense as we reach terminal rates?