The TwentyFour Blog

Regular readers will know that we have a positive medium term view of spread products. This is based on a number of factors; valuations in our view are reasonably attractive compared to history, we are convinced that both monetary and fiscal stimulus will remain in place for an extended period of time, and perhaps most importantly we remain at a very early stage of the new cycle.

Thursday’s ECB meeting left us in little doubt that we should expect some serious action in December, including the possibility of some new, as yet unused measures.

Barclays announced its results for the third quarter of 2020 this morning, with a number of media outlets opting to focus on a 6% year-on-year reduction in top-line income.

Unlike the past six months, where nearly all new deals performed well in the secondary market, from here on in that is far from guaranteed. Expect winners and losers.

Corporate hybrids have evolved in recent years into a large and well-established asset class within the European fixed income market, with €185bn of bonds outstanding.

In this short video, TwentyFour CEO Mark Holman outlines what he expects to see from bond markets in the next few weeks, and explains why he thinks fiscal stimulus in the US can be the catalyst for the rally to resume in the medium term.

The press can have their sensational headlines, but these stories have little substance when it comes to the impact on the reputation risk of banks or indeed any significant impact on their balance sheets come May 2021.

One of the legacies of Europe’s post-crisis lending landscape was a huge retrenchment in risk appetite, amplified by a lack of bank capital and in some instances funding for an extended period of time.

With September set to be the first negative month for most risk asset markets since March, it is worth analysing what has been driving the reversal.

Overall CLO and loan performance have exceeded our expectations, though there are still plenty of headwinds for the market, chief among which is the prospect of further lockdowns and more economic disruption as Europe battles a second wave of COVID-19 cases.

Overall, in our view there may be some temporary volatility ahead which investors can try to sidestep or even take advantage of, but it’s probably not worth trying to be too cute as our medium term outlook is still constructive.

A cut by the Fed or the BoE from here would mean negative rates, while the ECB already has its deposit rate deeply negative at -0.5%.