The TwentyFour Blog

This week the team at TwentyFour have been busy compiling our 2022 fixed income outlook, which will be published next week. There is no doubt we are confronted with a challenging set of circumstances, which will provide investors – not just in fixed income – with headwinds in the year ahead, and in particular we think during the first half.

Before the pandemic struck in February 2020, there were 159 million employed Americans; by the end of April that year, 26 million jobs disappeared. Since then, politicians and central bankers have focused on recovering all jobs lost to the pandemic fallout and returning to pre-COVID levels.

Marko Feiertag take a closer look at Santander’s latest consumer ABS transaction, which attracted strong demand despite being increased to a bumper €1.5bn in size.

So that’s the banks, rates, swaps and currency traders that all apparently got the wrong end of the stick. Explaining how you might arrive at a future monetary policy decision is a challenging and fine balancing act, but as Governor of the Bank of England that is of course one your jobs.

With forecasts remaining low and credit fundamentals as supportive as they are, the outlook for US high yield continues to look compelling.

Speculation on the timing of the Bank of England’s first post-pandemic rate hike has been rife. But whether the BoE hikes rates later this week, next month or even waits until after year-end, it is worth thinking about what it will mean for the general public, a step away from the financial markets.

Following a turbulent week for rates markets, Eoin Walsh outlines what investors can expect as the Bank of England and other central banks meet this week.

With a student housing CMBS deal recently brought to market, Kevin Law evaluates the sector’s outlook in the aftermath of COVID-19

With all eyes on November 3 and the Fed’s next move, Paul Kim looks at supply chain disruption in the US and how its cost pressures have shifted the narrative on ‘transitory’ inflation.

After a mixed start to Q4 for risk assets, Elena Rinaldi examines how European ABS and CLO assets have fared so far in Q4 and the factors currently affecting both markets.

Let’s not forget that the BoE dropped rates from 0.75% right down to 0.1% at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic back in March 2020, having only managed to put through two hikes in 2017 and 2018. It has changed course sharply before.

Fixed income markets have experienced a reasonable correction over recent weeks and, for higher-yielding indices at least, their first negative period so far this year.