The TwentyFour Blog

Given the prospect of central bank tapering and ultimately interest rate rises are looming ever larger, it is no surprise dealmakers are trying to take advantage of attractive financing terms while they still exist.

While bank treasurers may have to work a bit harder this year-end to formulate wholesale funding plans, the ABS market that they may be more reliant on going forward is experiencing a strong resurgence, which should ease the process of weaning off central bank funding.

This looks to us like a buy-into-the-dip opportunity, but investors should be wary of taking on too much rate sensitivity as the move in risk-free curves is likely to persist until the rate hike cycle is actually on the way.

In the last month, global government bond curves have had a torrid time, with significant steepening seen across US Treasury, UK Gilt and German Bund yields.

From time to time, Treasury yields actually become the source of risk for financial markets.

On Wednesday, the Fed moved one step closer to tapering and even put quite a clear timeframe for it, while on Thursday, the Bank of England openly talked about rate hikes.

It will take time for this sector to recover and we are likely to see more suppliers collapse in the coming weeks and months.

Our base case is for a continuation of quite high growth and a modest inflation overshoot. For bond investors, positioning for stagflation could be a dangerous trade if that base case bears out

With ample job openings, inflation well ahead of target, financial conditions that are certainly not tight and strong economic growth, the obvious question is what does the Fed need to see to finally start tapering its asset purchases?

BWIC – or bids wanted in competition – lists, are a unique characteristic of the ABS and CLO markets, where they are widely used in secondary trading when investors are looking to sell bonds.

As we rapidly descend upon the fourth quarter of this extraordinary year, we think some of the risks fixed income investors faced back in Q1 will rear their heads again before the end of 2021.

Despite the impressive returns of Euro HY over the last year or so, the backdrop for the asset class continues to suggest there is more upside to come.