Sharing our convictions

TwentyFour Asset Management CEO, Mark Holman, explains why he believes investors should still be starting their search for income in bonds, and how they can look to combat further rates weakness by looking globally and targeting the right areas in credit.

With US President Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid relief package, alongside the recently proposed $2.25 trillion in infrastructure projects, there is growing concern about the impact these programs could have on inflation and interest rates globally. In the investment world, we have been operating amid declining rates and low inflation for so long that few may realize the impact rising rates would have on investment returns.

ESG conscious investors, ourselves included, of course, are applauding this brave decision by Barclays to put their conscience before profit, but they are not the first to do so.

Stop fraud bleeding returns. Fraud from related party transactions, kickbacks and fiddling the books can run for years. The steps to minimize risk are based on 3 governance structures – independence from management is key. Amazing how often they are not in place, especially in some markets.

TwentyFour partner and portfolio manager Gordon Shannon looks at the developments we saw in investment grade credit in the first quarter of 2021 and provides his outlook for the rest of the year.

This recent stability in the rates curve suggests to us that for now the market is listening to the Fed’s rhetoric and as a result the UST market feels better balanced.

TwentyFour AM partner and portfolio manager Douglas Charleston discusses how ABS markets have performed in the first quarter of 2021 and provides his outlook for the rest of the year.

All-star New York Yankees pitcher Lefty Gomez once said: "I'd rather be lucky than good.” Successful investing over time is, however, not a game of luck. It requires discipline, skill and a focus on quality. Investors can prepare for a downturn by focusing on quality businesses with predictable earnings growth.

With treasury yields moving aggressively higher this year, anyone reading or listening to the financial press will have become very accustomed to headlines highlighting the negative performance of “Bonds”.

TwentyFour Asset Management partner and portfolio manager, Chris Bowie, looks at the specific challenges faced by investors wanting to invest sustainably in the bond markets and considers two controversial examples in Tesla and Coca-Cola.

There are many other aspects of SFDR to discuss and we expect the market to take some time to fully adjust.

Primary deals launched in the European high yield market over the last two weeks have been diverse, and at times opportunistic.

In terms of execution, it is difficult to assess any ‘ESG premium’ in Brass 10 given the overall strong demand, and in our view it’s still early to weigh the importance of a ‘social’ label for ABS investors.

What makes the internet high-speed, a phone smart and many other consumer products safer and more efficient? Semiconductor chips. They are at the heart of emerging technologies. We believe the industry has entered a new phase of growth that is characterized by higher profitability and lower earnings volatility.

The Fed maintained its dovish stance on Wednesday and offered very little in the way of resistance to the ongoing rise in US Treasury yields.

For most investors this deal would likely be considered a liquidity position, and at a spread of 15bp this is certainly not the sexiest proposition the European ABS market has to offer, but what is interesting about this latest instalment from the STORM platform is what makes the deal ‘Green’.

The bear steepening of the US Treasury curve has undoubtedly been the story of 2021 so far for fixed income investors, many of whom will have felt the adverse impact of the broad rates sell-off on their portfolios.

For fixed income investors, we think floating rate European ABS bonds could be an allocation consideration to help improve return prospects and reduce volatility.

In a developed country such as the US, a scenario of rising inflation expectations is usually accompanied by a bear steepening across maturities of the underlying yield curve.

Our year-end forecast of 1.50% for the 10-year is already looking very out of date, and it would be a brave person right now to suggest that 2% won’t be touched any time this year as the recovery gets into full flow with the Fed holding its tongue.

Last week UK Asset Resolution (UKAR) announced the sale of its final mortgage loan portfolios, bringing to a close a decade long chapter of state ownership.

In summary things are going quite well, and in this scenario a rise in government bond yields does not necessarily bring about a tightening of financial conditions.

A couple of weeks ago we wrote about Treasuries breaking new ground and the potential for them to go higher as higher inflation expectations gathered pace.

While COVID has been a key source of disruption across multiple facets of our lives, the virus-induced effects have served a useful purpose by accelerating some important business trends that were already underway. We can all agree data proliferation and the continued digitization of the world certainly are not slowing. What's less clear is which companies will benefit.