Sharing our convictions

The first two trading weeks of the year are coming to an end and unlike previous years they have been packed with activity.

As we enter the third year of the pandemic, most market participants are asking themselves (once again) if this will be the year when supply chain issues finally abate.

Given the swiftness of the Fed’s pivot we think risks are tilted towards the central bank doing more and not less. We wouldn’t even rule out a 50bp rate hike at some point.

As we enter the New Year, we say goodbye to an old “friend” that has accompanied us (for better and for worse) since the inception of the UK ABS market in the late 1980s – Sterling LIBOR.

TwentyFour’s Eoin Walsh explains how bond investors can use the three dimensions of credit – amount, quality, duration – to help maximise or protect returns through different stages of the economic cycle.

High-yield bonds can boost fixed income returns in strong markets but can create a drag for investors in downturns. Strategic income strategies give investors more options, allowing them to switch into lower risk securities to access positive returns whatever the road ahead.

As bondholders, we are comforted by all the banks passing such a severe test.

Jerome Powell’s recent testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, in which he said the Fed would discuss a faster taper of its asset purchases at December’s FOMC meeting, has led to intense speculation that we could see a move this week.

Against a backdrop of 4.20% year-on-year UK consumer price inflation (CPI), if you got your timing right, linkers (inflation-linked UK government bonds) will certainly have outperformed conventional Gilts by some margin.

The labour market in the US shows little sign of weakening, despite the huge number of jobs already created this year.

With 2022 expected to be a more challenging year for markets, in his annual outlook TwentyFour Asset Management CEO Mark Holman explains how he believes investors can avoid some big macro headwinds and still target “sensible fixed income-like returns” next year.

TwentyFour Asset Management CEO, Mark Holman, looks at five big questions hanging over fixed income as investors look ahead to 2022.

Markets have clearly experienced some periods of volatility this year, and while European CLOs haven’t been immune to this, both fundamentals and prices have been remarkably stable.

Emerging markets assets have endured a lot of punishment during 2021.

With floating rate assets likely to be high on investors’ shopping lists for 2022, Doug Charleston looks at the floating rate options across fixed income and highlights the highest yielding opportunities.

Market sentiment reflects growth that will continue at past levels, yet economies and businesses globally are facing stiff headwinds – high government debt, rising inflation, and supply chain bottlenecks. As markets shrug off risks, expect volatility and a divergence in company performance in 2022.

Fundamentally the outlook for 2022 appears less supportive than it was 12 months ago.

The latest plot twist of the pandemic may have spooked markets in recent days, but the underlying sentiment is still one of worrying exuberance and investors are overlooking businesses in the consumer staples, health care and discretionary sectors that are still in the process of normalizing.

What we are currently experiencing is a disconnect between monetary policy, the economy and the markets, a disconnect that in our view will struggle to survive much longer.

With rising government bond yield curves one of the biggest concerns for fixed income fund managers going into 2022, Eoin Walsh points to interest rate swaps as one option for reducing the rates risk of a portfolio without impacting its credit exposure.

This week the team at TwentyFour have been busy compiling our 2022 fixed income outlook, which will be published next week. There is no doubt we are confronted with a challenging set of circumstances, which will provide investors – not just in fixed income – with headwinds in the year ahead, and in particular we think during the first half.

With environmental and social factors rightly growing in prominence in the field of ESG, TwentyFour portfolio manager Chris Bowie explains why governance should still matter to bond investors

Before the pandemic struck in February 2020, there were 159 million employed Americans; by the end of April that year, 26 million jobs disappeared. Since then, politicians and central bankers have focused on recovering all jobs lost to the pandemic fallout and returning to pre-COVID levels.

Marko Feiertag take a closer look at Santander’s latest consumer ABS transaction, which attracted strong demand despite being increased to a bumper €1.5bn in size.