Short Term Bond Quarterly Update – October 2022

Earlier this month, we wrote about the high cost of staying in cash in the Euro market. In that note, we argued that a combination of inflation, low front-end rates and steeper curves, favoured a rotation out of cash and cash like instruments into other alternatives that delivered better real returns, including credit. Building on this argument, we wanted to extend this perspective to the US dollar market and highlight a few key points.

The labour market in the UK continues to cool off along the lines of what the Bank of England (BoE) expects. Yesterday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS), released its monthly labour market data report, highlighting a rise in the unemployment rate and a reduction in some wage inflation measures.

The sharp sell-off in loans tied to First Brands Group, a US auto-parts supplier, has rippled through credit markets in recent weeks — but for investors' outstanding senior secured loans held in Collateralised Loan Obligations (CLOs), the damage appears modest and distinct from reported off balance sheet financings.

France is in the news again. Prime Minister Lecornu became the latest casualty of the French politics saga that began just over a year ago when president Macron called a surprise early election.

Tight spreads and elevated supply are often key signs that fixed income markets are overheating. Despite these all being present within the European High Yield market today, the underlying data points to a more measured backdrop characterised by the printing of high-quality new issues, improving credit fundamentals and a stubbornly supportive technical background, offering investors reassurance over the medium-term future of the asset class.

In November 2023, we estimated that holding cash, as opposed to staying invested, could cost investors 10-30% over a three-year period. At the time, we highlighted that interest rates had reached their cyclical peaks and were likely to decrease from that point.