Market updates

In recent weeks the US debt ceiling has been dominating headlines with investors focused on the imminent threat of a US default which would be extremely unnerving for global markets. We look at the wider implications facing the US economy.

As earnings season kicks off in Europe, Eoin Walsh looks at what impact, if any, recent volatility in the banking sector has had on European banks. 

Partner and Portfolio Manager Chris Bowie discusses recent Q1 events and gives an outlook for Investment Grade for the next quarter.

With headlines suggesting that deposit outflows in the banking sector are causing concern, Felipe Villarroel looks at the data which suggests that European banks remain resilient.

After a volatile few days in bank capital, Felipe Villarroel looks at how AT1s are pricing after the sell off.

Swiss regulators' decision to bail out Credit Suisse equity holders while wiping out AT1 debtholders will see long-term effects on bank debt markets and likely legal action says Eoin Walsh

Partner Eoin Walsh explores what the potential outcome of regulatory intervention for Credit Suisse could mean as negative headlines persist for the bank.

With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank dominating media headlines and fueling questions among investors, Mario Montagnani explains why our Multi Asset Boutique believes it is a company-specific, isolated case.

Deposit outflows at Silicon Valley Bank raise concerns over lending quality and mark-to-market losses, but is this a wider issue for the global banking sector?

Inflation may be like gum on your shoe – annoying and, above all, hard to remove. Sticky inflation is a scenario that has been in the cards for quite a while already but now seems to receive more weight as a probable outcome. There are six reasons for this display of stubbornness which may disappoint those who thought inflation would come off easily.

With 2023’s rally halted by the Fed’s hawkish messaging, Felipe Villarroel questions whether markets read the recent jobs data correctly and looks at what it means for terminal rate expectations.

Strong performance across markets in January has left some investors feeling they’ve missed out on the rally in bonds. No need to worry, says Felipe Villarroel.

TwentyFour Portfolio Manager, Jack Daley, discusses how the short term bond strategy has performed in Q4 2022 and provides his outlook for the new year.

TwentyFour Partner and Portfolio Manager, Douglas Charleston, describes the developments of the ABS market in Q4 2022.

A member of our Multi-Sector Bond discusses market conditions in Q4 2022.

With projections for European growth and inflation being hastily revised in early 2023, the region’s bonds are still paying investors a premium that may not be around for long, says Dillon Lancaster.

Recent employment data suggests the US economy may escape with a soft landing, a welcome boost to market sentiment in the early days of 2023, says Eoin Walsh.

The yield curve and our models point to a high probability of recession. But how severe will the U.S. recession be? To answer this question, we exploit historical data to examine the impact of the tightening cycle on GDP growth. The results show that investors should exercise caution in 2023.

The Politburo, the top decision-making body of the Chinese Communist Party, announced last week a document focusing on the country’s economic growth in 2023. Meanwhile, the Chinese government also started to exit its zero-Covid-policy, much sooner than anticipated. These intentions signal an earlier-than-expected recovery of the Chinese economy.

Following Chairman Powell’s speech last night, George Curtis looks at what the latest labour market data means for the Fed’s war on inflation.

China’s authorities have recently revealed coordinated measures to alleviate the pressure on its property sector. The government tried to help the sector in the past year but failed; however, this time could be more determined and effective.

The 20th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is likely to make Xi Jinping the most powerful leader since Mao Zedong. Sven Schubert, Senior Investment Strategist at Vontobel discusses what the congress has in store and whether it marks the beginning of a new political and economic cycle.

TwentyFour Portfolio Manager, Johnathan Owen, explains how investment grade markets have performed in Q3 2022.

With some UK bank bonds now trading with higher yields than their counterparts in Turkey, Mark Holman questions whether the dumping of UK and sterling assets has gone too far.