Market updates

George Curtis from the Multi-Sector Bond (MSB) team at TwentyFour Asset Management reflects on the third quarter of 2024 and its impact on credit and equity markets. Despite some mid-quarter volatility, overall performance remained strong, with government bonds leading the way.

As the third quarter of 2024 comes to a close, TwentyFour Asset Management's Aza Teeuwen reflects on what this has meant for the Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) team. Not only were volumes across European ABS elevated throughout July and August, we also saw €34 billion in primary issuance – a significant increase from previous years.

Chris Bowie at TwentyFour Asset Management describes the third quarter of 2024 as a significant turning point in fixed income markets, marked by the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) for the first time in many years. This followed an earlier 25bp cut by the Bank of England (BoE), setting the scene for further rate cuts over the coming years.

With cracks starting to show in the US economy, many are wondering whether tight corporate bond spreads leave investors vulnerable. But with corporate balance sheets holding firm and yields on higher quality bonds looking attractive, staying invested in credit should continue to reward investors.

Uncertainty is over, it was a 50 basis points (bps) move. As we mentioned in our previous blog, the most important take away from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting would be their assessment of the economy.

While the majority of headlines have concerned whether the Fed will do 25bp or 50bp to kick off its cutting cycle, we think this is only one part of the discussion – and not necessarily the most important one.

Eoin Walsh delivered the keynote address at TwentyFour Asset Management’s Annual Conference in London on September 10, 2024.

In his headlining speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell’s message to the market was clear.

It feels as though market news hasn’t taken a holiday so far this summer. From the US on Wednesday we got the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) July 30-31 policy meeting, and revisions to a whole year of non-farm payrolls (NFP) data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS).

Recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data brought good news for investors and central banks.

If you were on vacation last week, your holiday blues wouldn’t have been helped when you looked at your screens this morning, given how quickly sentiment has changed, mainly on the back of one data point.

TwentyFour Asset Management's Chris Bowie discusses the underweight duration across all of our outcome driven strategies, how this phase is now coming to an end, and why we are beginning to increase our interest rate duration in all of our funds.

Positioning and fixed income markets have remained quite tricky this year, however credit markets have continued to perform very strongly. TwentyFour Asset Management's Eoin Walsh, discusses why he thinks there is opportunity within European credit despite the rate headwinds and pull back on some of the aggressive rate cutting expectations markets had at the start of the year.

The last few weeks have seen former President Donald Trump establish a lead over current President Joe Biden across polls in the run-up to November’s US election. Even though it is early days and a lot can change before November (including the Democrat candidate), it is worth considering what a second Trump term might mean for the world economy and for fixed income markets.

Last month saw the European Central Bank (ECB) get their cutting cycle underway with a 25bp cut in the deposit rate to 3.75%. However, any expectations for a rapid series of reductions after the first move were tempered by President Christine Lagarde, who at the subsequent press conference was clear that the ECB could move in phases in which they left interest rates unchanged.

There is little disagreement among investors and economists that the last few years have been highly unusual in many respects. An inflationary shock in developed markets, one of the fastest rate hiking cycles on record, the worst year in decades for government bonds (2022), and mild recessions with no movement in unemployment are just a few of the dynamics that have strayed from recent norms.

After weeks of volatility following President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call snap parliamentary elections in France, markets were breathing a sigh of cautious relief on Monday after the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) underperformed the polls.

One of the drivers of the dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December was the acknowledgement that the risks to the policy outlook had become more two-sided. In other words, while higher rates were still needed to tame inflation, the Fed saw a risk that staying restrictive for too long and risk damaging a labour market that has so far shown remarkable resilience.

For any fixed income investors that follow the England football team, the plan for H2 2024 may feel somewhat familiar – no substitutions in the second half.

Securitisation made its latest appearance in the mainstream financial press this week with the news that the European commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) market is set to experience its first losses on AAA bonds since the global financial crisis.

For the fixed income fanatics amongst us, June was always going to be one for the books with all three of the major central banks meeting, elections, and continued data.

From the potential for maintaining a status quo that has delivered stability and decent returns in the last few years, to the risks of renewed volatility during a potential second Trump presidency, our latest article from Fixed Income on the upcoming elections in Mexico provides a comprehensive analysis.

TwentyFour Asset Management’s Chris Bowie, takes a closer look at how he is thinking about duration within fixed income portfolios and shows how following conventional wisdom on duration might prove costly for some investors this year.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will almost certainly start their rates cutting cycle next month. Supportive inflation data and clear guidance from the governing council has driven market implied probabilities of a June cut to almost 100%, with little in the way to derail that.