Market updates

With projections for European growth and inflation being hastily revised in early 2023, the region’s bonds are still paying investors a premium that may not be around for long, says Dillon Lancaster.

Recent employment data suggests the US economy may escape with a soft landing, a welcome boost to market sentiment in the early days of 2023, says Eoin Walsh.

The yield curve and our models point to a high probability of recession. But how severe will the U.S. recession be? To answer this question, we exploit historical data to examine the impact of the tightening cycle on GDP growth. The results show that investors should exercise caution in 2023.

The Politburo, the top decision-making body of the Chinese Communist Party, announced last week a document focusing on the country’s economic growth in 2023. Meanwhile, the Chinese government also started to exit its zero-Covid-policy, much sooner than anticipated. These intentions signal an earlier-than-expected recovery of the Chinese economy.

Following Chairman Powell’s speech last night, George Curtis looks at what the latest labour market data means for the Fed’s war on inflation.

China’s authorities have recently revealed coordinated measures to alleviate the pressure on its property sector. The government tried to help the sector in the past year but failed; however, this time could be more determined and effective.

The 20th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is likely to make Xi Jinping the most powerful leader since Mao Zedong. Sven Schubert, Senior Investment Strategist at Vontobel discusses what the congress has in store and whether it marks the beginning of a new political and economic cycle.

TwentyFour Partner and Portfolio Manager, Douglas Charleston, explains how ABS markets have performed in Q3 2022 and provides his outlook for the rest of the year.

George Curtis looks at market conditions in the third quarter of 2022.

TwentyFour Portfolio Manager, Johnathan Owen, explains how investment grade markets have performed in Q3 2022.

With some UK bank bonds now trading with higher yields than their counterparts in Turkey, Mark Holman questions whether the dumping of UK and sterling assets has gone too far.

With rates volatility persisting and developed markets likely sliding toward recession, Jack Daley revisits our research on BBB defaults and returns and explains why we tend to maintain a significant allocation to BBB credit.

The first round of Brazil’s general elections will take place on Sunday, October 2nd, with former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the current president Jair Bolsonaro facing each other. Thierry Larose, Portfolio Manager at Vontobel, discusses how markets are viewing the two candidates.

With reaction to the UK’s mini-budget roiling markets for a second day, Felipe Villarroel looks at what higher rates and a weaker currency mean for the UK economy.

Partner and portfolio manager, Eoin Walsh, delivered the keynote address at the TwentyFour Fixed Income Conference in London on September 13.

With US inflation data once again hammering markets, Mark Holman says that with US Treasury yields likely approaching their peak, a shift in sentiment for risk assets isn’t far away.

Dillon Lancaster evaluates the impact of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on inflation and why he believes next month is set to be a very important period for central bank meetings.

With Europe facing an energy crisis and the UK bracing for a five-quarter recession, a strong allocation bias to the US seems a no-brainer. However, George Curtis says that when looking at relative value in fixed income, the decision is never that simple.

Investors are eyeing a peak in inflation once more after US data came in lower than expected for the first time this year, and with credit finally seeing positive flows again, George Curtis sees markets grinding tighter over the rest of the summer.

Fixed rate bond yields may have climbed as markets priced in higher interest rates, but both existing and new investors in floating rate bonds have more to gain as central banks keep hiking, says Pauline Quirin

With the Bank of England doling out a double dose of doom on UK inflation and growth on Thursday, Eoin Walsh says it is refreshing for investors to get such a candid assessment from a central bank.

With bank Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds broadly trading at a 10% discount to par and many being priced to perpetuity, Dillon Lancaster suggests investors are either missing or ignoring the solid fundamentals on show in Q2 earnings.

Pierre Beniguel explains why high yield issuers are selling new bonds at steep discounts to par value, and why this represents an opportunity to build potentially significant performance into fixed income portfolios going forward.

European ABS issuers largely held off on printing new deals in Q2 as broader market volatility saw spreads widen, but we are already seeing more investor-friendly structures and many favoured names are likely to bring deals offering markedly higher yields when activity picks up again.