Geopolitics

Alors que nous abordons la dernière ligne droite du semestre, une question demeure : quelles seront les conséquences du conflit au Moyen-Orient pour l’économie en 2026 ? Dans le dernier Investors’ Outlook, nos experts de la Boutique Multi Asset partagent leurs points de vue.

The conflict in Iran has driven a sharp repricing at the front-end of rates markets, pushing central bank expectations from cuts to hikes in a matter of weeks. While the reaction is understandable given the inflationary impact, the scale of the move has left front-end yields on a more attractive footing.

Vontobel’s experts highlight a widening set of opportunities in emerging market equities, spanning consumer-driven growth, industrial capital expenditure, energy investment, and markets undergoing structural reforms that emphasize shareholder value and capital discipline.

Markets have bounced back to pre-conflict highs. The Conviction Equities and Multi Asset boutiques share their views on why this signal may be worth paying attention to.

The dispersion across commodity sectors persists into Q1 2026, with petroleum now the dominant driver of BCOM performance. In our latest quarterly outlook, we examine the supply dynamics behind elevated oil prices, the sharp precious metals selloff, and our views across energy, metals, and agriculture amid acute geopolitical uncertainty.

Vontobel’s experts discuss how geopolitics, inflation and credit are shaping the outlook for fixed income, exploring the impact of the Middle East crisis, diverging paths between the U.S. and Europe, and where value opportunities may emerge across credit markets.

With no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran, and tensions escalating once again over the weekend, investors are bracing for more volatility. Inflation fears have ramped up significantly, reflected clearly in government bond markets where rising yields show rate cuts being priced out and rate hikes increasingly being priced in.

As fixed income investors, our focus is on how the shock ripples through the variables that matter most for bonds: inflation, growth, and how central banks respond.

Vontobel’s experts provide their perspective on developments in the Middle East and Iran and discuss the potential impact on emerging market equities and fixed income.

As the US-Israeli military operation in Iran enters its fourth day, markets are continuing to react to rhetoric from both sides and attempting to gauge how long the conflict may last and what the impact will be on the local and global economies.

L’année a démarré sur les chapeaux des roues, alors que les tensions géopolitiques faisaient monter le volume, affaiblissaient le dollar américain et soutenaient la vigueur de l’or. Mais que réservera l’année 2026 aux investisseurs ? Découvrez-le dans le premier numéro d’Investors’ Outlook de 2026.

After a week that saw 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) hit yields not seen since the late 1990’s (and record highs for 30-year and 40-year maturities), alongside one of the most interesting Davos conferences in years, which was held in the shadow of the latest push by President Trump to “acquire” Greenland, it is helpful to take stock of where this leaves the global geopolitical landscape and financial markets.