Points sur les marchés

Negative headlines around private credit have intensified this year, driven by the AI-related software sell-off and the news that most players have restricted withdrawals from retail private credit funds.

With no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran, and tensions escalating once again over the weekend, investors are bracing for more volatility. Inflation fears have ramped up significantly, reflected clearly in government bond markets where rising yields show rate cuts being priced out and rate hikes increasingly being priced in.

As the US-Israeli military operation in Iran enters its fourth day, markets are continuing to react to rhetoric from both sides and attempting to gauge how long the conflict may last and what the impact will be on the local and global economies.

The geopolitical risk premium has transitioned from being a mere possibility to a present reality. Here is our perspective on the evolving situation in the Middle East.

We have had an eventful few weeks of AI-driven volatility in markets, with markets seemingly swinging from “everyone’s a winner” to “everyone’s a loser” faster than technological progress itself.

Foreign exchange markets have taken centre stage again in recent weeks. President Trump’s apparent indifference to the relatively steep dollar depreciation trend of late has raised a few eyebrows and added fuel to the dollar fire.

2026 is already shaping up to be another volatile year for geopolitics, economies and markets. But one pocket stands out as a key beneficiary of the present backdrop.

After a week that saw 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) hit yields not seen since the late 1990’s (and record highs for 30-year and 40-year maturities), alongside one of the most interesting Davos conferences in years, which was held in the shadow of the latest push by President Trump to “acquire” Greenland, it is helpful to take stock of where this leaves the global geopolitical landscape and financial markets.

With spreads well below long term averages and government bond curves pricing in what central banks are likely to do in the next few quarters, opportunities for capital gains through spread compression or sustained rallies in government bonds appear to be limited.

TwentyFour Asset Management’s Felicity Juckes shares her take on volatility in Q4 and why we remain optimistic on credit heading into 2026.

TwentyFour Asset Management’s Gordon Shannon explains how resilient US economic activity and evolving Federal Reserve dynamics shaped Q4 and why we remain focused on high-quality credit heading into 2026.

TwentyFour Asset Management’s Douglas Charleston highlights 2025 as another year in which European ABS delivered solid positive returns over risk-free rates, with lower-than-expected volatility despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

2026 began with the global acknowledgement that the TACO mantra (Trump Always Chickens Out) does not apply to foreign policy. We believe this sends a clear message to leaders of small and medium-sized countries opposing or refusing to cooperate/negotiate with the Trump administration.

The new year has begun with a jolt for market participants after the US carried out a military operation in Caracas over the weekend, capturing Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro and his wife.

Alors que nous arrivons au terme d’une année où les actifs risqués ont résisté aux droits de douane américains et aux inquiétudes croissantes concernant les valorisations technologiques liées à l’IA, l’équipe de gestion de portefeuille de TwentyFour Asset Management retient sept questions clés qui, selon elle, définiront 2026 pour les investisseurs en obligations.

The terms private credit and life insurance have appeared together in multiple negative headlines in recent weeks, and to casual observers the link between the two may not be immediately obvious.

For much of the past year, the AI story in markets has been one of unrestrained optimism. Firms have been racing to spend on chips, infrastructure, and data centres, and equity valuations have generally rewarded those with the boldest capital expenditure plans.

Amid tariffs, bankruptcies, and uncertainty, credit fundamentals remain strong. Elevated yields and solid corporate balance sheets favour income-focused fixed income strategies over government bonds, even as volatility persists.

As we begin the final stretch of 2025, market conditions appear challenging. Inflation remains sticky across a range of economies, preventing major central banks from enacting rapid rate cuts to support GDP growth.

The Brazilian corporate bonds market has recently been demonstrating signs of volatility. Systemic or idiosyncratic? Or both?

Earlier this month, we wrote about the high cost of staying in cash in the Euro market. In that note, we argued that a combination of inflation, low front-end rates and steeper curves, favoured a rotation out of cash and cash like instruments into other alternatives that delivered better real returns, including credit. Building on this argument, we wanted to extend this perspective to the US dollar market and highlight a few key points.

As fixed income investors face inflation surprises, tariff rhetoric and growing concerns around central bank independence, Gordon Shannon, Partner and Co-Head of Investment Grade, explains why the focus remains on resilience.

In our latest Multi-Sector Bond quarterly update, Jakub Lichwa, Portfolio Management, discusses why we retain a favourable view on credit despite tighter spreads.

In our latest Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) quarterly update, Aza Teeuwen, Partner and Co-Head of ABS, explains how strong CLO issuance, robust investor demand and tightening spreads have driven a standout year for the European ABS market.