TwentyFour

Even in recession, defaults will be lower than previous cycles
The vast majority of the high yield universe used the attractive funding conditions last year to term out their maturity profiles. In fact, 2022 maturities in both US and European high yield equate to just 1% of their respective indices.
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Return of bond-equity correlations could offer respite for investors
The broad-based sell-off that has faced investors since the start of this year has been all the more painful because of the breakdown in traditional correlations, which has put conventional hiding places out of reach.
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The solace provided by a robust earnings season
Earnings season is now in full swing, and it has undoubtedly been eventful. During the first quarter, companies have had to navigate multiple obstacles, including surging commodity prices, hawkish central bank policies, a Russian invasion, further supply chain disruptions caused by lockdowns in China, and dwindling consumer confidence.
TwentyFour

Peak hawkishness for rates, but can the consumer handle it?
Since the end of last year, central bank officials have been falling over themselves to increase their hawkishness around rates, particularly in the US. Even the ECB Governing Council members have been vocal of late.
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Growing CRE ABS offers diversification and yield
CRE ABS offers conservatively structured debt features, with generally short duration exposure and a spread premium rewarding the more intensive underwriting and due diligence required.
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Taking stock of recent bond moves
So far, most fixed income asset classes have experienced a tumultuous 2022. With high yield markets bucking the trend in recent weeks, George Curtis takes a closer look at the drivers of the sector’s recent strength and its current opportunity set.
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Rationality will win out for AT1s in the real world
Despite the ECB's recent review bringing some previously debated points surrounding AT1s to the forefront, we believe any changes would create undesired, real-world consequences if implemented.
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Why inflation risks are still tilted to the upside
With inflation running at 40-year highs in many parts of the world, it is easy to get carried away with making comparisons to the dark economic days of the early 1980s.
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UK sub-prime lending raises ESG concerns
Last week Oodle Financial Services successfully priced its fifth UK Auto ABS transaction, Dowson 2022-1.
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Is a soft landing possible?
As this remarkable cycle rapidly progresses, thoughts have more recently turned to the chances of a US recession in 2023, and whether the Fed can somehow pull off a soft landing.
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Deutsche Bank lures CoCo investors
The reshaping of Deutsche Bank since the end of the global financial crisis has been one of the longest-running transformation stories in the banking sector.
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The evidence doesn’t point to recession
Growth in 2022 is likely to be above historical averages for most developed economies, even after adjusting forecasts for the impact of the Russian invasion.