The TwentyFour Blog

With 2023’s rally halted by the Fed’s hawkish messaging, Felipe Villarroel questions whether markets read the recent jobs data correctly and looks at what it means for terminal rate expectations.

Strong performance across markets in January has left some investors feeling they’ve missed out on the rally in bonds. No need to worry, says Felipe Villarroel.

With projections for European growth and inflation being hastily revised in early 2023, the region’s bonds are still paying investors a premium that may not be around for long, says Dillon Lancaster.

Recent employment data suggests the US economy may escape with a soft landing, a welcome boost to market sentiment in the early days of 2023, says Eoin Walsh.

Following Chairman Powell’s speech last night, George Curtis looks at what the latest labour market data means for the Fed’s war on inflation.

With some UK bank bonds now trading with higher yields than their counterparts in Turkey, Mark Holman questions whether the dumping of UK and sterling assets has gone too far.

With rates volatility persisting and developed markets likely sliding toward recession, Jack Daley revisits our research on BBB defaults and returns and explains why we tend to maintain a significant allocation to BBB credit.

With reaction to the UK’s mini-budget roiling markets for a second day, Felipe Villarroel looks at what higher rates and a weaker currency mean for the UK economy.

With US inflation data once again hammering markets, Mark Holman says that with US Treasury yields likely approaching their peak, a shift in sentiment for risk assets isn’t far away.

Dillon Lancaster evaluates the impact of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on inflation and why he believes next month is set to be a very important period for central bank meetings.

With Europe facing an energy crisis and the UK bracing for a five-quarter recession, a strong allocation bias to the US seems a no-brainer. However, George Curtis says that when looking at relative value in fixed income, the decision is never that simple.

Investors are eyeing a peak in inflation once more after US data came in lower than expected for the first time this year, and with credit finally seeing positive flows again, George Curtis sees markets grinding tighter over the rest of the summer.