TwentyFour Blog

After two COVID-hit years last week the European ABS market decamped once again to Barcelona for the 26th annual AFME & IMN Global ABS conference.

After 18 months of difficult headlines Credit Suisse could ill afford more negative press, and we therefore welcomed its decision to refinance its 7.125% Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond last week at its first call date.

In fast-moving markets there is no perfect time to provide an update on valuations.

Inflation rates have been rising for over a year now. While the increasing levels may eventually moderate, inflation is still likely to be with us for some time, especially with the Russian invasion of Ukraine exacerbating post-Covid supply constraints.

Given the widening of spreads in Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds, in line with general spread widening across all of credit, the prospect of AT1s not being called on their first call date is beginning to generate a few headlines again.

Given inflation has been running hot for more than a year now, it was no surprise to see the recent dip in US data greeted with a muted sigh of relief across the markets.

The past couple of weeks have seen a flurry of new issuance as rates and credit markets have stabilised, and the European summer lull is approaching fast.

We can debate whether the European Central Bank is behind the curve or not, but Christine Lagarde says rates will be in non-negative territory by September.

The most important asset allocation decisions for global investors ought to originate by answering a seemingly simple question: Where in the cycle are we?

The Federal Reserve minutes for meetings held on the 3-4th May were released last night, and for markets that have been beaten up by rates volatility, they provided some interesting takeaways.

European high yield supply has endured its weakest start to a year in over a decade. The total supply to May 13th equalled €12.89bn, a fall of 75% year on year, with the market effectively closed for a large portion of the year.

With investors having endured a painful period of rising yields in 2022, Mark Holman looks at whether rates weakness or credit spread widening has been most to blame.