Market Update

In our Investment Grade quarterly update, Gordon Shannon, reflects on government bond yields, which accelerated sharply at the end of Q3, as well as commenting on the behaviour of the European Central Banks over the quarter and the soft-landing 'fairytale' markets had hoped for.

Elena Rinaldi gives an update on the market, highlighting the peak in rates in the quarter, the performance of ABS for the quarter, and delving deeper into the primary issuance activity over the summer months.

It is our view that without a doubt 2022 was a year to forget for the bond market. Whether you held government bonds, high end corporate credit or riskier high yield paper, you would have taken a knock as steep increases in interest rates across the globe sent bond prices tumbling. 

After what can only be described as a relatively dire year for fixed income in 2022, during which spiralling inflation led to one of the most aggressive rate hiking cycles on record, we believe the market for bonds is now looking much healthier.

Last week’s inflation data revealed the economy’s vulnerability towards the vagaries of inflation. Services CPI remained stubborn and oil price gains fired up headline numbers again. While a second wave remains a possibility, even more pressing is a required adjustment by investors to the reality of a non-linear inflation decline coupled with slower growth that could last until 2025.

Inflation and interest rates still wrestle over the fate of the economy. Meanwhile, equities have had a pretty good run so far this year. However, when commodity prices started climbing earlier this summer, they had to give up some of the gains revealing underlying uneasiness over the trajectory of inflation and the economy.

Douglas Charleston believes European ABS has once again provided a rare bright spot for fixed income. He explains how, from Q1 to Q2, focuses have shifted, and delves into different macro-economic variables affecting the ABS market.

Jack Daley takes a look into the economic events that have influenced the investment grade markets in Q2. He then goes on to explain why he believes investment grade fixed income offers the most attractive risk-adjusted returns currently available.

In our MSB update, Charlene Malik, reflects on the banking turmoil that occurred in Q2, as well as happenings around the US debt ceiling and global inflation. She then goes on to discuss the ways the MSB team have responded to Q2 events.

Equities and bond markets have rarely been as much at odds as they have been recently. While equities shrug off the possibility of a recession, bonds seem to be firmly counting on one. As this cycle remains notoriously difficult to forecast, the essential question is: when will the consumer start to wobble?

Markets are celebrating central-bank liquidity provisions for banks, recent inflation retreats, and a positive start of the Q1 earnings season: Permission to participate - but not without a grain of salt as the Fed gears up for its next rate hike and recession risks linger on.

Partner and Portfolio Manager, Aza Teeuwen, discusses the impact of Q1 events on the European ABS market and how he expects the markets to respond moving forward.