Geopolitics

After a turbulent first half dominated by geopolitics, commodity markets are entering a new phase. Tight inventories, weather risks, production trends, and demand are once again taking center stage. Discover our latest views on where we see the biggest opportunities—and risks—across energy, metals, and agriculture in the second half of 2026.

Vontobel’s experts assess the implications of the latest US-Iran deal for inflation and interest rates, exploring the policy outlook for the Fed, ECB and Bank of England, and discussing where opportunities and risks may emerge across fixed income markets.

In an increasingly deglobalized world, governments are seeking energy and commodity autonomy in the form of domestic supply chains and strategic reserves. What does this mean for the energy transition?

As we enter the home stretch of the first half of the year, one of the main questions is what the war in the Middle East may mean for the economy’s trajectory this year. The Multi Asset Boutique shares its views in the latest Investors’ Outlook.

The conflict in Iran has driven a sharp repricing at the front-end of rates markets, pushing central bank expectations from cuts to hikes in a matter of weeks. While the reaction is understandable given the inflationary impact, the scale of the move has left front-end yields on a more attractive footing.

Vontobel’s experts highlight a widening set of opportunities in emerging market equities, spanning consumer-driven growth, industrial capital expenditure, energy investment, and markets undergoing structural reforms that emphasize shareholder value and capital discipline.

Markets have bounced back to pre-conflict highs. The Conviction Equities and Multi Asset boutiques share their views on why this signal may be worth paying attention to.

The dispersion across commodity sectors persists into Q1 2026, with petroleum now the dominant driver of BCOM performance. In our latest quarterly outlook, we examine the supply dynamics behind elevated oil prices, the sharp precious metals selloff, and our views across energy, metals, and agriculture amid acute geopolitical uncertainty.

Vontobel’s experts discuss how geopolitics, inflation and credit are shaping the outlook for fixed income, exploring the impact of the Middle East crisis, diverging paths between the U.S. and Europe, and where value opportunities may emerge across credit markets.

With no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran, and tensions escalating once again over the weekend, investors are bracing for more volatility. Inflation fears have ramped up significantly, reflected clearly in government bond markets where rising yields show rate cuts being priced out and rate hikes increasingly being priced in.

As fixed income investors, our focus is on how the shock ripples through the variables that matter most for bonds: inflation, growth, and how central banks respond.

Vontobel’s experts provide their perspective on developments in the Middle East and Iran and discuss the potential impact on emerging market equities and fixed income.