Sharing our convictions

With markets now pricing in two cuts in the Fed Funds rate this year, and a 97% chance of at least one cut, once again the FOMC members are at odds with the financial markets.

China’s ambitions being challenged is creating significant uncertainty. Alongside this, MSCI and FTSE appear to be stumbling over each other to add China weight to their indices. The potential to reshape the benchmarks has significance – for both active and passive investors. Is the herd being led down a dark alley?

One of the main drivers of global markets at the moment is the exact status of the economic cycle in the United States, and on a related note, what the Federal Reserve’s next moves are likely to be. One question we are being asked more and more often by investors is whether we think a recession is coming in the US, and if so, when?

Since the result of the UK referendum in June 2016 there has been a noticeable ‘Brexit-premium’ associated with most sterling denominated assets.

While a big payday for a CEO is not headline material anymore, it still makes most people queasy. When a CEO earns $20 million in one year, it would take someone making $100,000 a year more than four lifetimes to earn the same amount. Balance matters.

Last Friday’s strong US GDP reading for the first quarter has sparked several days of debate between TwentyFour portfolio managers. The 3.2% reading was 100bp ahead of consensus, so a strong beat at the headline level, but the components accounting for it, such as inventory building, suggested the figure was an aberration and likely to reverse in Q2.

Emerging Market (EM) bonds have had a good year so far. While they are not at the very top of the performance table, the hard currency CEMBI (Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index) is up 5.69% in $ since the start of the year, and the EMBI (Sovereigns) is up 6.32%; not bad at all.

The cycle of banks calling outstanding capital bonds continued this week and we’ll soon be bidding fond farewells to two of our long held and favourite positions; Nationwide’s 6.875% Additional Tier 1 (CoCo) and Barclays’ 14% hybrid Tier 1.

Since the start of the year credit markets have been very well supported, reversing much of the sharp period of spread widening we experienced in the final quarter of 2018.

The ECB published the result of its Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) yesterday, which increased the average capital requirements for European banks, and overall, increased the average SREP requirement by approx. 100bps.

For fixed income investors, it has been impossible to ignore the proliferation of press coverage about the growth of the triple-B rated corporate bond market, and a coming wave of downgrades for companies rated BBB to high yield, with these ‘fallen angels’ exposing investors to mark-to-market losses at best, and defaults at worst.

A growing emerging markets middle class and increased domestic demand may reduce poverty across the planet, and also provide fertile ground for investors. Companies that can consistently deliver to increasingly wealthy EM consumers stand to profit.

In this Viewpoints paper, Gary Thompson, Head of Trading, explains how overseas investors can get exposure to Chinese A-shares and Chinese Depositary Receipts (CDR).

In this Viewpoints paper, Igor Krutov, Director of Research, explains why most European banks suffer from structurally poor profitability. Even “average” U.S. regional banks are earning ROTEs (returns on tangible equity) in the mid-teens, something most European banks can only dream of.

As bottom-up quality growth investors, our choices are not generally driven by macro factors such as inflation. But it is important to test the strength of our portfolio against macro challenges.

Brazil has sold off as the market fears the country is in trouble. If the huge pension program is not reformed, it will add expense to a budget already in deficit – and reform has proven extremely difficult. On top of this, there will be a new President elected in October. The race is so open and full of new and anti-establishment candidates, there is a fear that reform may languish along with the country’s finances.

Legendary baseball star Yogi Berra opined that, “You don’t have to swing hard to hit a home run. If you got the timing, it’ll go“. That may work in baseball, but in the world of investing, timing is a difficult, some say an impossible skill to master.

Several times this year we have discussed the benefits of “roll down” in an environment that for fixed income investing is particularly unfriendly. We believe roll down gains will be one of the best ways to protect portfolios in 2018 from the rising rate curves that we have been experiencing so far.

After what has been a terrific year for risk in 2017, making our predictions for the upcoming year is all the more challenging. The risks we won’t be taking seem to be much easier to list than those that we will, so we’ll start with those. But before we embark on 2018, we should review our predictions for 2017.