Market updates

CRE ABS offers conservatively structured debt features, with generally short duration exposure and a spread premium rewarding the more intensive underwriting and due diligence required.

TwentyFour Partner and Portfolio Manager, Gordon Shannon, describes the developments of the short term bond strategy in Q1 2022.

TwentyFour Portfolio Manager, Elena Rinaldi, explains how European ABS markets behaved in Q1 2022 and provides her outlook for the year ahead.

TwentyFour Partner and Portfolio Manager, Eoin Walsh, discusses market conditions in Q1 2022 and provides his outlook for the year ahead.

So far, most fixed income asset classes have experienced a tumultuous 2022. With high yield markets bucking the trend in recent weeks, George Curtis takes a closer look at the drivers of the sector’s recent strength and its current opportunity set.

As pressure has been building on Chinese technology stocks given growing regulatory threats, some of the key players in the Chinese internet sector are shifting to a more prudent strategy, pulling back to focus closer on the core business rather than investing in new growth areas.

Despite the ECB's recent review bringing some previously debated points surrounding AT1s to the forefront, we believe any changes would create undesired, real-world consequences if implemented.

With inflation running at 40-year highs in many parts of the world, it is easy to get carried away with making comparisons to the dark economic days of the early 1980s. 

Last week Oodle Financial Services successfully priced its fifth UK Auto ABS transaction, Dowson 2022-1.

As this remarkable cycle rapidly progresses, thoughts have more recently turned to the chances of a US recession in 2023, and whether the Fed can somehow pull off a soft landing.

The reshaping of Deutsche Bank since the end of the global financial crisis has been one of the longest-running transformation stories in the banking sector.

Growth in 2022 is likely to be above historical averages for most developed economies, even after adjusting forecasts for the impact of the Russian invasion.

Last week both the Fed and the BoE hiked rates by 0.25%, and judging by the Fed's dot plots and comments from the Bank of England (BoE), more hikes will likely follow in the coming months.

Officially the Fed pivoted from its ‘transitory’ inflation rhetoric in December last year.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered fresh debate about ESG considerations in fixed income, particularly when it comes to emerging markets assets.

The hawkishness of the Fed on Wednesday paved the way for the Bank of England (BoE) to follow suit.

Soaring inflation was already a dominant theme for markets coming into 2022. The sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have only exacerbated its expected rise, and pushed its expected peak further out.

The much-anticipated March FOMC meeting is finally upon us, and given there was no meeting in February investors will be very glad of this window into the Fed’s thinking, particularly given the ongoing and far-reaching economic ramifications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

We think a base case that central banks will follow a more measured monetary policy path than markets are currently pricing in is reasonable given the current backdrop.

Default rate estimations depend on how you define defaults and what index you use, but there is no doubt we are at record lows in European high yield at the moment.

European bank equity has been among the hardest hit sectors since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as fears of losses and a flight to quality have prompted investors to change positioning.

Escalating geopolitical tensions have contributed to a volatile past week for investors, but uncertainty regarding central bank action continues to dominate the bond markets, with one investment bank now predicting nine straight hikes from the Fed beginning at its March meeting.  

So far this year, the spread between two-year and 10-year US Treasury yields has declined from 77bp to 51bp.

Yield curve shape and yield curve change are often good predictors of the state of the economy and its outlook.