Fixed income

As investors face tariffs, muted growth, and geopolitical risk, the Fixed Income team explains how emerging-market investment-grade bonds can provide yield and global diversification.

Tight spreads and elevated supply are often key signs that fixed income markets are overheating. Despite these all being present within the European High Yield market today, the underlying data points to a more measured backdrop characterised by the printing of high-quality new issues, improving credit fundamentals and a stubbornly supportive technical background, offering investors reassurance over the medium-term future of the asset class.

In November 2023, we estimated that holding cash, as opposed to staying invested, could cost investors 10-30% over a three-year period. At the time, we highlighted that interest rates had reached their cyclical peaks and were likely to decrease from that point.

Oracle priced an $18bn six-tranche (5yr/7yr/10yr/20yr/30yr/40yr) bond deal which was increased from an initial $15bn on the back of exceptionally strong demand. It is the latest sign that the AI investment boom, long the focus of equity markets, is now spilling into credit.

With the Fed’s stance suggesting it is prioritising growth over sticky inflation risks, volatility in longer dated bonds is likely to persist and the case for increasing duration in fixed income is not compelling.

You can now watch the replay of our webinar: The new multi-plural world: Macro divergence meets yield