Fixed income

After a difficult 2022, bonds may be poised for unusually high returns compared to historic averages. And not just in the US -- we see opportunities in European CLOs and RMBS. They offer double digit yields for short-dated debt and look very attractive on a relative value basis compared to domestic credit.

As governments around the world provided support in various manners during the pandemic, savings ratios increased to levels that were twice as large as the previous all time highs in some countries. Felipe Villarroel takes a look at some countries' spending vs savings monthly data patterns and lays out what he thinks this means for fixed income investors.

Bank bonds have been amongst the best performing asset classes in fixed income over the last few months, doing their bit in proving their strength.

Luc D’hooge and Wouter Van Overfelt review the developments of the Vontobel Fund – Emerging Markets Debt and Vontobel Fund – Emerging Markets Corporate Bond and share their forecast for the remainder of 2023.

What level of risk are investors willing to take? As central bank rates hike and a soft landing narrative makes its way into analysts’ forecasts, Eoin Walsh takes a look at what affects this has on investment risk and reinvestment risk.

What sort of landing will the global economy experience? With the recent release of the US CPI report, inflation has been on a downward trend and the resilient activity data has continued to surprise many. This report has acted as a trigger of sorts for increasing calls for a soft landing.

After a tumultuous decade, the stars may be set to favor emerging market local currency bonds again. Portfolio manager Carl Vermassen says there are good reasons to believe their outperformance so far this year isn’t just a one-off lucky shot.

Last year's bond market disappointments now seem far behind us and investors tell us they are once again bullish on fixed income.

To say addressing carbon emissions is urgent errs on the side of understatement. Tackling the transition toward decarbonization requires a collective effort, and carbon markets have a key role to play in the climate change fight – though those opportunities also come with some challenges.

As the US Federal Reserve meets this week, what should investors brace for? Our Head of Corporate Credit Mondher Bettaieb Loriot suggests Fed officials are likely to hit the pause button on rate hikes as inflation and growth keep trending down. Across the Atlantic, however, the European Central Bank might not be ready to apply the brakes just yet.

What can we expect from central banks this week? Felipe Villarroel looks at how recent CPI prints in the Eurozone and in the United States are expected to influence upcoming central bank monetary policy decisions.

What have we learnt from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey? Felipe Villarroel discusses how latest changes in the consumer’s expectations of the economy reflect that the ECB’s monetary policy is actually working.

In recent weeks the US debt ceiling has been dominating headlines with investors focused on the imminent threat of a US default which would be extremely unnerving for global markets. We look at the wider implications facing the US economy.

Is China’s property market on the mend? Are there any more humps in the road before it turns the corner? Our emerging markets credit specialists Cosmo Zhang and Wouter van Overfelt explain how contrarian investors who may have missed the strong rebound in December can now spot potential opportunities for generating alpha.

Wouter Van Overfelt, Head of Emerging Market Corporates and Luc D’hooge, Head of Emerging Markets Bonds, provide a review on the developments in the first quarter, the current positioning of the strategies as well as an outlook for the remainder of 2023.

As earnings season kicks off in Europe, Eoin Walsh looks at what impact, if any, recent volatility in the banking sector has had on European banks. 

After the “great repricing” of 2022, is corporate credit now ready for takeoff? Our corporate credit experts, Mondher Bettaieb Loriot and Christian Hantel, analyze the reasons behind the revival of high-grade corporate credit and explain why they remain optimistic about investment-grade markets in Europe and the US.

Partner and Portfolio Manager Chris Bowie discusses recent Q1 events and gives an outlook for Investment Grade for the next quarter.

For a single company, supply chain oversight can be complex. For professional investors with multiple companies in their investment portfolios, this task can become massive. Complexity, however, is not something to hide behind.

Given the recent headlines surrounding Credit Suisse and the decision from FINMA, the Swiss regulator, to write down CHF16 billion of Credit Suisse’s Additional Tier 1 debt to zero, we hosted a webinar looking at the possible wider implications of this write-down and what it could mean for fixed income investors.

European ABS proved to be a valuable allocation for fixed income investors last year and we think the asset class looks to be even stronger in 2023, with rates and spreads combining to create an attractive income landscape.

Luc D’hooge, Head of Emerging Markets Bonds and Wouter Van Overfelt, Head of Emerging Market Corporates, provide a review on the developments in 2022, the current positioning of the strategies as well as an outlook for 2023.

In our view, European credit now represents a strong medium term value opportunity that investors cannot afford to ignore.

2022 was a stormy year for bonds. As 2023 gets under way, our Fixed Income Boutique heads predict whether bonds are set for a smooth touchdown or a bumpy landing amid the continuing headwinds in the global economy.