Quantitative Investments

Utilities, facing significant macroeconomic headwinds in 2023, have seen relative valuations fall precipitously, offering opportunity in 2024.

Markets surged in early November as the Fed appeared more dovish and the US economy showed signs of cooling. This could turn out to be a false dawn but currently the odds seem favorable for the bulls to maintain control – at least for now. In response, our allocation models are making notable shifts: ceasing equity overweight reduction and establishing a small bond overweight – the first since May.

Monetary policy has done a good job: inflation is down. But even if central banks just keep rates stable for now, the truth is that the pressure is on as the effects of monetary policy continue to unfold. The main question now is if we will return to the ambitious inflation target of 2% or if central banks will tolerate for inflation to fluctuate between 3% and 4%. Meanwhile, we may be in for a year-end rally as markets pre-celebrate victory over inflation.

October challenged investors with rising yields, robust growth, and ongoing central bank inflation battles. Recession risks grow amidst uneven global recovery, yet China's stabilization offers hope. Allocation models are adjusting, reducing equity overweight and bond underweight, reflecting a gradual normalization of yield curve steepness.

The September Fed meeting was a surprise with its hawkish tilt which went hand in hand with upward GDP forecast revisions and lower recession risks. The question now is whether the Fed's willingness to keep rates 'higher for longer' is a calculated risk in combating inflation or a policy misstep. Our models estimate that a recession may not be immediate but cannot be ruled out, especially for H1 2024. In response, they continue to reduce their equity overweight as well as their bond underweight.

Last week’s inflation data revealed the economy’s vulnerability towards the vagaries of inflation. Services CPI remained stubborn and oil price gains fired up headline numbers again. While a second wave remains a possibility, even more pressing is a required adjustment by investors to the reality of a non-linear inflation decline coupled with slower growth that could last until 2025.

Markets experienced a setback in August 2023 as rate expectations for 2024 and 2025 rose, driven by reduced recession risks and inflation worries from fiscal stimulus and debt. Concerns about contagion from Chinese real estate developers in the banking system seem exaggerated. Our models remain constructive on equities.

Inflation and interest rates still wrestle over the fate of the economy. Meanwhile, equities have had a pretty good run so far this year. However, when commodity prices started climbing earlier this summer, they had to give up some of the gains revealing underlying uneasiness over the trajectory of inflation and the economy.

For now the much-feared recession has been staved off thanks to a resilient consumer. However, the risk is not off the table yet which has prompted our models to take a small step back from maximum equity allocations. While they stay optimistic, they have now started to treat the asset class with a grain of salt while bonds don’t seem to be able to find their way out of the dog’s house.

Nothing seems to be able to derail equities on their way up, despite risk factors such as the US debt ceiling or the surprisingly hawkish Fed communiqué in June. A major reason for the calm is the continuously surprising resilience of the consumer, which still argues for an equity overweight.

Equities and bond markets have rarely been as much at odds as they have been recently. While equities shrug off the possibility of a recession, bonds seem to be firmly counting on one. As this cycle remains notoriously difficult to forecast, the essential question is: when will the consumer start to wobble?

Markets keep ignoring the economic deterioration in the US, as first cracks in the US banking system increase the likelihood of a Fed pivot over the upcoming months. At the same time Chinese recovery boosts the growth outlook for the APAC region. While growth perspectives and sentiment seem to diverge, our models stick to their equity overweight.