Rencontrer George

With two-year UST yields at around 4.7%, we think short end yields are offering an attractive potential hedge against both downside growth catalysts and lower oil prices.

Credit assets generally performed well in the first of half of 2026, despite periodic volatility driven by the Iran war and concerns about AI disruption and private credit.

Having initially expected central banks to cut interest rates in 2026, investors now face a hawkish pivot after the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked rates at its June meeting.

UK government bond yields have pushed higher this month as markets have digested a building political crisis, with the prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, now set to face a Labour Party leadership contest following dire local election results on May 7.

Sharp swings in government and corporate bond markets since the onset of the Middle East conflict pose interesting questions for fixed income investors.

As fixed income investors, our focus is on how the shock ripples through the variables that matter most for bonds: inflation, growth, and how central banks respond.