TwentyFour

With no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran, and tensions escalating once again over the weekend, investors are bracing for more volatility. Inflation fears have ramped up significantly, reflected clearly in government bond markets where rising yields show rate cuts being priced out and rate hikes increasingly being priced in.

Como inversores en renta fija, nos centramos en cómo la crisis repercute en las variables más importantes para los bonos: la inflación, el crecimiento y la respuesta de los bancos centrales.

As the US-Israeli military operation in Iran enters its fourth day, markets are continuing to react to rhetoric from both sides and attempting to gauge how long the conflict may last and what the impact will be on the local and global economies.

We have had an eventful few weeks of AI-driven volatility in markets, with markets seemingly swinging from “everyone’s a winner” to “everyone’s a loser” faster than technological progress itself.

En las últimas semanas, la atención del mercado ha pasado del gasto de los hiperescaladores al riesgo que la inteligencia artificial podría suponer para numerosas empresas de software como servicio (SaaS).

Foreign exchange markets have taken centre stage again in recent weeks. President Trump’s apparent indifference to the relatively steep dollar depreciation trend of late has raised a few eyebrows and added fuel to the dollar fire.

2026 ya se perfila como otro año volátil para la geopolítica, las economías y los mercados. Pero un activo destaca como principal beneficiario del contexto actual.

Recent developments involving Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell have raised fresh questions around central bank independence, the politicisation of monetary policy, and the future of Fed leadership, particularly with his term as Chair due to expire in May 2026.

After a week that saw 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) hit yields not seen since the late 1990’s (and record highs for 30-year and 40-year maturities), alongside one of the most interesting Davos conferences in years, which was held in the shadow of the latest push by President Trump to “acquire” Greenland, it is helpful to take stock of where this leaves the global geopolitical landscape and financial markets.

El equipo de gestión de carteras de TwentyFour Asset Management analiza cómo las preocupaciones sobre la independencia de la Fed se están reflejando hoy en los mercados y cómo los inversores pueden posicionar sus carteras para gestionar la volatilidad.

With spreads well below long term averages and government bond curves pricing in what central banks are likely to do in the next few quarters, opportunities for capital gains through spread compression or sustained rallies in government bonds appear to be limited.

TwentyFour Asset Management’s Felicity Juckes shares her take on volatility in Q4 and why we remain optimistic on credit heading into 2026.