The TwentyFour Blog

Felipe Villarroel takes a look at what progress, if any, has been made in the labour market and how this resonates with the Fed's projection of labour markets easing while not experiencing a major disruption.

As governments around the world provided support in various manners during the pandemic, savings ratios increased to levels that were twice as large as the previous all time highs in some countries. Felipe Villarroel takes a look at some countries' spending vs savings monthly data patterns and lays out what he thinks this means for fixed income investors.

Bank bonds have been amongst the best performing asset classes in fixed income over the last few months, doing their bit in proving their strength.

Felipe Villarroel looks at the preliminary numbers for July PMI Manufacturing and PMI Services data, and how from a markets point of view, he thinks volatility will remain in place while both rates and spreads should trade in a range as we await for more clarity on whether inflation will allow Central Banks to pause and the extent of the slowdown in H2, particularly considering August is looming.

What level of risk are investors willing to take? As central bank rates hike and a soft landing narrative makes its way into analysts’ forecasts, Eoin Walsh takes a look at what affects this has on investment risk and reinvestment risk.

What sort of landing will the global economy experience? With the recent release of the US CPI report, inflation has been on a downward trend and the resilient activity data has continued to surprise many. This report has acted as a trigger of sorts for increasing calls for a soft landing.

BBVA have announced they are issuing a new AT1. What does this mean for the market? Eoin Walsh believes this could be the catalyst investors have been waiting for to help AT1 spreads grind tighter.

What can we expect from central banks this week? Felipe Villarroel looks at how recent CPI prints in the Eurozone and in the United States are expected to influence upcoming central bank monetary policy decisions.

What have we learnt from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey? Felipe Villarroel discusses how latest changes in the consumer’s expectations of the economy reflect that the ECB’s monetary policy is actually working.

In recent weeks the US debt ceiling has been dominating headlines with investors focused on the imminent threat of a US default which would be extremely unnerving for global markets. Johnathan Owen looks at the wider implications facing the US economy.

As earnings season kicks off in Europe, Eoin Walsh looks at what impact, if any, recent volatility in the banking sector has had on European banks. 

With headlines suggesting that deposit outflows in the banking sector are causing concern, Felipe Villarroel looks at the data which suggests that European banks remain resilient.