UK

Last week, risky assets continued to experience a somewhat volatile period. The tone was generally a risk off one, with correlations between risk free and risky assets back to negative.

The recent rally in European fixed income has partly been driven by improved economic sentiment, falling inflation expectations, and a more accommodative monetary policy outlook from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE).

The massive efficiencies achieved by DeepSeek’s recently launched Large Language Model have prompted investors to reevaluate the power, data center, and chip requirements for the development of AI models. As AI becomes more widely adopted, we identify companies poised to benefit.

Global rates markets rallied sharply on Wednesday after fixed income investors received some long-awaited good news in the shape of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which came in below consensus in both the US and the UK.

Last week Fitch Ratings published a report concerning asset performance deterioration in UK residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) originated prior to the global financial crisis (GFC).

Given modest interest rate cut projections, a stable if not stellar macro backdrop and better relative value than corporate credit, we think European ABS investors can expect another strong year of supply and returns in 2025.

Last week’s rise in UK government bond yields prompted the bonds of UK financial institutions, both banks and insurers, to underperform other regions, a trend also seen in the equity market.

We saw a sell-off across the UK Gilt curve on Wednesday with yields rising by 4bp at the short end and 11bp at the long end. This took the 10-year Gilt to 4.80% and the 30-year Gilt to 5.35%, with the latter bringing the unwelcome headline that UK borrowing costs are at their highest since the last century.

Primary market and trading activity may be declining as is typical in late December, but macro data doesn’t sleep, and central banks haven’t got the memo on the wind-down into year-end either with policy meetings at the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday respectively.

With a macro backdrop of falling rates and solid global growth, TwentyFour Asset Management's Eoin Walsh says fixed income investors can expect healthy total returns in 2025.

With elevated yields and inflation expected to come back to target, we think investors can target a level of real return that was extremely difficult to achieve in the previous cycle.

Watch our livestream where Andrew Jackson, Head Fixed Income and Eoin Walsh, Partner & Portfolio Manager TwentyFour Asset Management delve into the current bond market landscape.