Government Bonds

There is little disagreement among investors and economists that the last few years have been highly unusual in many respects. An inflationary shock in developed markets, one of the fastest rate hiking cycles on record, the worst year in decades for government bonds (2022), and mild recessions with no movement in unemployment are just a few of the dynamics that have strayed from recent norms.

With 2023’s rally halted by the Fed’s hawkish messaging, Felipe Villarroel questions whether markets read the recent jobs data correctly and looks at what it means for terminal rate expectations.

TwentyFour Portfolio Manager, Pierre Beniguel, discusses recent market developments in Q4 2022 and provides his outlook for the year ahead.

Recent employment data suggests the US economy may escape with a soft landing, a welcome boost to market sentiment in the early days of 2023, says Eoin Walsh.

George Curtis looks at market conditions in the third quarter of 2022 and his expectations for the rest of the year.

With reaction to the UK’s mini-budget roiling markets for a second day, Felipe Villarroel looks at what higher rates and a weaker currency mean for the UK economy.

With the Bank of England doling out a double dose of doom on UK inflation and growth on Thursday, Eoin Walsh says it is refreshing for investors to get such a candid assessment from a central bank.

Dillon Lancaster reviews the main market drivers in the second quarter of 2022 and explains how the Strategic Income team is tackling today’s environment.

After H1 2022 broke market records for all the wrong reasons, Gary Kirk says fixed income outflows could reverse quickly if investors see evidence that central banks are turning the tide on inflation.

With Fed rate hikes continuing and the economy progressing into late cycle stages, Mark Holman presents his expectations from the Fed going into the second half of the year and explains why he believes Treasuries can provide the protection investors may need.

For all of these observations, there is one common observation – yields did not stay at these high levels for very long.

The broad-based sell-off that has faced investors since the start of this year has been all the more painful because of the breakdown in traditional correlations, which has put conventional hiding places out of reach.