Flash Fixed Income

October brought the first serious bout of volatility in corporate bond markets for some time, with two high-profile US bankruptcies raising fears of a more systemic issue in credit. We anticipate more such defaults in the coming months, though we expect they will remain isolated cases given fundamentals across the market still look healthy.

France’s chronic government paralysis repeatedly created headlines this month, and fixed income markets are rightly worried about the sustainability of French government borrowing levels. Meanwhile, forecasts of a £50bn blackhole in the UK’s public finances are keeping gilt yields elevated and have made this November’s UK Budget a potential flashpoint.

With the Fed’s stance suggesting it is prioritising growth over sticky inflation risks, volatility in longer dated bonds is likely to persist and the case for increasing duration in fixed income is not compelling.

The Trump administration’s immigration policy leaves the US labour market at a pivotal juncture.

Softer US economic data means the pressures on UST yields now look more balanced, but headlines around President Trump’s pick for the next Fed chair are just one reason investors should expect rates volatility to continue.

The question for investors now is how much of the macro risk remains, and how well that risk is being reflected in asset valuations.

After a chaotic week in global markets following the tariffs announced by President Trump on April 2, at time of writing (April 10) investors are left to contemplate 125% tariffs on China, a baseline 10% on the rest of the world, 25% on auto imports and a 90-day pause on more punitive rates.

The incoming German government’s removal of the country’s infamous “debt brake” is a serious pivot for the typically fiscally conservative country, and one that we think highlights the value on offer in European assets.

Since the Federal Reserve first cut interest rates in September, we have seen the most aggressive rise in US Treasury yields of any cutting cycle over the past 40 years.

Will volatility in government bonds continue? Has fixed income seen “peak ESG”? And what will be the biggest driver of returns?

Spread tightening has left some market participants nervous about fixed income valuations going into 2025, but we think the drivers of recent credit performance are unlikely to weaken materially in the coming months.

In this month's Flash Fixed Income, we look at how bond markets are reacting to Donald Trump's victory in the US election. With Trump's stated policies widely regarded as being inflationary, we expect a bigger divergence in the path for interest rate cuts between the US and Europe that might favour higher quality European credit.