Fixed income

Will volatility in government bonds continue? Has fixed income seen “peak ESG”? And what will be the biggest driver of returns?

Given modest interest rate cut projections, a stable if not stellar macro backdrop and better relative value than corporate credit, we think European ABS investors can expect another strong year of supply and returns in 2025.

The Net Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) has been the flagship climate initiative for banks to advertise their commitment to aligning their investment and lending portfolios with net-zero targets by 2050 or sooner. However, in recent weeks the NZBA has been hit with the withdrawal of all its major Wall Street banks.

It has been a busy start to 2025 in fixed income markets. After the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish December dot plot, which added fuel to a sell-off in rates last month, you might have thought primary market activity would be more cautious than both issuers and investors would have anticipated a month ago.

Spread tightening has left some market participants nervous about fixed income valuations going into 2025, but we think the drivers of recent credit performance are unlikely to weaken materially in the coming months.

Conditions are currently favorable across fixed income markets. But pockets of volatility and risk aversion will challenge even the most skilled investors. The silver lining? We expect risk-conscious, active investors can generate alpha opportunities in 2025 similar to those achieved this year.