Europe

Oil prices have been gathering headlines in the last few weeks. After falling below the $60 per barrel mark, the West Texas Intermediate price (WTI) bounced back strongly as a result of fresh sanctions announced against the two Russian giants, Lukoil and Rosneft.

AI-driven momentum trades and non-US value dominated markets in 2025. However, the sustainability of these trends remains uncertain, particularly given unproven ROI of AI investments. Amid this backdrop, quality stocks emerge as a prudent choice, offering both resilience and steady growth potential.

France’s chronic government paralysis repeatedly created headlines this month, and fixed income markets are rightly worried about the sustainability of French government borrowing levels. Meanwhile, forecasts of a £50bn blackhole in the UK’s public finances are keeping gilt yields elevated and have made this November’s UK Budget a potential flashpoint.

Earlier this month, we wrote about the high cost of staying in cash in the Euro market. In that note, we argued that a combination of inflation, low front-end rates and steeper curves, favoured a rotation out of cash and cash like instruments into other alternatives that delivered better real returns, including credit. Building on this argument, we wanted to extend this perspective to the US dollar market and highlight a few key points.

ESG frameworks have faced rising political pushback and growing skepticism, with some investors questioning the feasibility of climate goals under current political and economic conditions. We believe, even during turbulent times, the transition to a low-carbon economy is here to stay. Read the latest Impact Report for more insights.

France is in the news again. Prime Minister Lecornu became the latest casualty of the French politics saga that began just over a year ago when president Macron called a surprise early election.

Tight spreads and elevated supply are often key signs that fixed income markets are overheating. Despite these all being present within the European High Yield market today, the underlying data points to a more measured backdrop characterised by the printing of high-quality new issues, improving credit fundamentals and a stubbornly supportive technical background, offering investors reassurance over the medium-term future of the asset class.

In November 2023, we estimated that holding cash, as opposed to staying invested, could cost investors 10-30% over a three-year period. At the time, we highlighted that interest rates had reached their cyclical peaks and were likely to decrease from that point.

International equities offer long-term structural growth opportunities. Europe is undergoing an economic transformation through defense, technology, and infrastructure investments. In our view, rising US risks, like fiscal deficits, underscore the need for diversification.

Following the end of quantitative easing in 2023, the European ABS market has gone from strength to strength and 2025 is set to overtake the post-2008 new issuance record set in 2024.

As active managers we are naturally looking for bonds that we believe are mispriced, therefore offering attractive risk-adjusted carry or, sometimes, a capital gain if market pricing falls into line with our view. Equally important is to avoid sectors facing structural or protracted cyclical downturns where we don’t think valuations reflect the fundamentals.

A trio of rating upgrades in European financials late last week has highlighted the strength of fundamentals in the sector. With the proportion of the subordinated financials that is rated investment grade continuing to grow, the wider pool of investors targeting these bonds could help to dampen volatility in the asset class.