Government Bonds

2026 deutet sich bereits als weiteres volatiles Jahr für Geopolitik, Wirtschaft und Finanzmärkte an. Doch ein Bereich profitiert besonders von den aktuellen Rahmenbedingungen.

After a week that saw 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) hit yields not seen since the late 1990’s (and record highs for 30-year and 40-year maturities), alongside one of the most interesting Davos conferences in years, which was held in the shadow of the latest push by President Trump to “acquire” Greenland, it is helpful to take stock of where this leaves the global geopolitical landscape and financial markets.

With spreads well below long term averages and government bond curves pricing in what central banks are likely to do in the next few quarters, opportunities for capital gains through spread compression or sustained rallies in government bonds appear to be limited.

Während wir uns dem Ende eines Jahres nähern, in dem Risikoanlagen US-Zölle und zunehmende Bedenken hinsichtlich KI-getriebener Tech-Bewertungen weitgehend ignoriert haben, wählt das Portfoliomanagement-Team von TwentyFour Asset Management die sieben Schlüsselfragen aus, die seiner Ansicht nach das Jahr 2026 für Anleihen-Investoren bestimmen werden.

Softer US economic data means the pressures on UST yields now look more balanced, but headlines around President Trump’s pick for the next Fed chair are just one reason investors should expect rates volatility to continue.

Während die Zölle den Wirtschaftsausblick erheblich eingetrübt und die Volatilität an den Zinsmärkten erhöht haben, hat die mittlerweile wieder gelockerte Haltung der USA das Vertrauen in die Renditen von Unternehmensanleihen für 2025 wiederhergestellt.

“Liberation Day” has landed, and not with a whimper. In extraordinary scenes in the Rose Garden of the White House, President Trump held up a board outlining the level of tariffs the US will impose on countries around the world, and in most cases they were worse than worst-case expectations.

There is little disagreement among investors and economists that the last few years have been highly unusual in many respects. An inflationary shock in developed markets, one of the fastest rate hiking cycles on record, the worst year in decades for government bonds (2022), and mild recessions with no movement in unemployment are just a few of the dynamics that have strayed from recent norms.

With 2023’s rally halted by the Fed’s hawkish messaging, Felipe Villarroel questions whether markets read the recent jobs data correctly and looks at what it means for terminal rate expectations.

A member of our Multi-Sector Bond team discusses recent market developments in Q4 2022 and provides his outlook for the year ahead.

Recent employment data suggests the US economy may escape with a soft landing, a welcome boost to market sentiment in the early days of 2023, says Eoin Walsh.

George Curtis looks at market conditions in the third quarter of 2022 and his expectations for the rest of the year.