Investire nella qualità

Artificial intelligence (AI) may be one of the greatest technological breakthroughs, but it’s too early to tell. History shows that investment returns don’t always match innovation hype. However, we do know that economic fundamentals have not changed, which means that investments must become self-financing and deliver adequate returns to be sustainable.

Vontobel’s Ed Walczak is among a small number of portfolio managers active today who were also managing money during the dot-com bubble. Ed compares the two time periods and explains how having zero exposure in tech and telecom in the dot-com era, while unpopular, rewarded his investors.

Sebbene il potenziale dell’AI rimanga molto interessante, la sua attuale posizione dominante sul mercato e la dipendenza da finanziamenti esterni generano vulnerabilità. Cercando opportunità in settori caratterizzati da crescita prevedibile e resilienza – sia all’interno che all’esterno dell’ecosistema AI – riteniamo che gli investitori possano affrontare meglio le incertezze future.

Leaders in the video game industry, such as Tencent Holdings, NetEase, and Capcom, offer a distinct blend of predictability and growth through a combination of "Evergreen" titles and new game pipelines. These firms have generated recurring revenues and compounded earnings at approximately 20% annually over the past decade.

Nel 2025 i mercati sono dominati da momentum trades legati all’AI e dal valore extra-USA. Tuttavia, la sostenibilità di queste tendenze rimane incerta, soprattutto considerando il ROI ancora non provato degli investimenti in AI. In questo contesto, i titoli di qualità si confermano una scelta prudente, offrendo resilienza e potenziale di crescita costante.

Quitting is often misunderstood as weakness. But in investing, selling is the overlooked half of decision-making, hindered by biases like sunk cost fallacy or FOMO. In our view, knowing when to walk away is essential for preserving capital and seizing better opportunities.