Emerging Market Bonds Review Q3 and Outlook Q4

As we head into the summer, credit markets are navigating an increasingly complex landscape. Inflation pressures are building up - particularly in Europe - while central banks are diverging in their policy responses, with most preparing for tighter monetary policy. Meanwhile, recent market volatility has created dispersion across sectors and rating categories, opening doors for active managers.

I mercati emergenti hanno appena superato due grandi shock globali — e ne sono usciti vincitori. A nostro avviso, non si tratta di un caso. Molti investitori hanno mancato il rimbalzo post-Liberation Day rimanendo ancorati a un paradigma che potrebbe non descrivere più adeguatamente l'universo dei mercati emergenti. La stessa errata valutazione rischia di aggravare ulteriormente la potenziale sottoesposizione del portafoglio oggi.

We believe EM fixed income is better positioned today than four years ago, despite uncertainty around the duration of the war and the disruption of oil supply. If de-escalation materializes in the short term, EM bonds may rebound amid a resumption of pre-war trends, including diversification away from US-centric portfolios.

In investment grade, several hyperscalers raised capex projections, driving record-breaking bond issuance. AI-related investments are heightening correlation risks and reshaping index compositions. In high yield, AI disruption creates risks and opportunities, particularly in software. The AI-capex trend has impacted the Swiss bond market, where new issuance remained elevated.

In the US and Japan, monetary policy is expected to support fiscal policy, even when central banks have other plans. Federal Reserve “Fed” Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's reform plans conflict with US President Donald Trump's preference for low rates, and the Bank of Japan's efforts to normalize policy clash with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's economic agenda.

Vontobel’s experts discuss how geopolitics, inflation and credit are shaping the outlook for fixed income, exploring the impact of the Middle East crisis, diverging paths between the U.S. and Europe, and where value opportunities may emerge across credit markets.