Vescore Global Market Outlook November 2020

It takes two to tango on the dance floor as well as the world stage. While Donald Trump and Xi Jinping seem ready to jump at each other’s throats, a constructive geopolitical dialogue, perhaps after a Joe Biden win, could free us from trade war fears.

A key factor in assessing the fundamental economic market environment at the start of September is the change in US interest policy: a reformulated inflation target. Against the backdrop of further economic support from central banks, our models take a short position in bonds and remain overweighted on equities, albeit to a lesser extent.

Investors’ risk appetite changed over the course of July with our risk indicator in green territory for the first time since June 2019. We continue to overweight equities, but to a lesser extent. Gold still shines.