Consistency through high conviction

Over the last few months, the economic cycle has accelerated more rapidly than ever before, to reach mid-cycle within a matter of months. Equally, near-unanimous consensus expectations like the weakening of the US Dollar that we saw at the end of last year have changed direction altogether, whilst an expected tsunami of corporate defaults has failed to materialise. Investors have had to “unfix their thinking” to cope with these rapid changes and rapidly shift their portfolios as the economic situation has developed, and will need to do so again - repeatedly - as further changes emerge as global recovery continues through 2021.

The Fed maintained its dovish stance on Wednesday and offered very little in the way of resistance to the ongoing rise in US Treasury yields.

Our year-end forecast of 1.50% for the 10-year is already looking very out of date, and it would be a brave person right now to suggest that 2% won’t be touched any time this year as the recovery gets into full flow with the Fed holding its tongue.

A couple of weeks ago we wrote about Treasuries breaking new ground and the potential for them to go higher as higher inflation expectations gathered pace.

Our end of year view on the 10 year is 1.50, but we could get there a lot quicker - now is not the time to be brave on Treasuries.

With investors eyeing economic recovery and stimulus firmly in place, credit spreads look set to break through previous tights in 2021. But what could happen if they do? TwentyFour Asset Management CEO, Mark Holman, explains why he believes portfolio rebalancing will likely be the key strategic decision for fixed income investors this year, and why now is the time to plan for it.